Why you shouldn't trust analysts unconditionally

11 April 2007
International Monetary Fund
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2007/apr/11/globaleconomy

"All of you have heard or read about the slumping US housing market, problems in sub-prime mortgages, bankruptcies and foreclosures, and more recently, softening business investment - much of the news has not been good," Johnson said at a press conference to launch the WEO.

"And you might ask if the US sneezes, won't the rest of the world catch a cold?

"This is a key risk to the outlook, and a timely question that we have looked at extensively in this report. Our bottom line view is that while the US may have sneezed, it appears to be a mild sneeze thus far, and not likely to spread."

1 October 2007
International Monetary Fund
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2007/10/01/afx4173610.html

PARIS (Thomson Financial) - IMF managing director designate Dominique Strauss-Kahn said the US subprime mortgage crisis is unlikely to have a dramatic impact on world growth.

'The US mortgage crisis will certainly have some effect on growth. But I do not think that these effects, as far as we can measure them today...will be dramatic for growth,' he told a news conference.

He said the crisis now seems to be under control, even if it is not yet resolved, he said.

The outlook for world growth remains solid, with emerging economies continuing to grow strongly, he said.

1 October 2007
Alan Greenspan
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2007/10/01/afx4174433.html

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan suggested here Monday that the global credit crisis triggered in August might be coming to an end.

Addressing business leaders, Greenspan said: 'Is this ... credit crisis about to be over? Possibly.'

30 October 2007
US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2007/10/28/international/i042634D89.DTL&type=politics

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Tuesday that the American economy is strong enough to overcome the trouble in the country's housing market although the subprime mortgage crisis may take longer than expected to resolve.

"We have a very strong global economy. We have a strong U.S. economy," Paulson told a meeting of business executives in New Delhi. "Most parts of the capital market are functioning normally."

7 April 2008
International Monetary Fund
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2008/0407/breaking50.htm

Government intervention at a worldwide level is needed to address the credit crisis, the head of the International Monetary Fund said today.

"I really think that the need for public intervention is becoming more evident," IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn told the Financial Times in an interview.

Mr Strauss-Kahn said the credit crisis was far more than an American problem. "The crisis is global," he said. "The so-called decoupling theory is totally misleading."

Developing countries such as China and India would be affected, the paper said.

He added that the IMF this week will revise down its global economic forecasts to below the current private and official consensus.

April 2008
Asian Development Bank
http://www.adb.org/Documents/Books/ADO/2008/

A key message of ADO 2008 is that, although problems will spread from the global economy to developing Asia—a process that is already visible in high-frequency trade and financial data—the region's growth in 2008 is much more likely to moderate than to lurch down. Developing Asia is not immune to global developments, but neither is it hostage to them. In the near term, Asia's structural transformation, robust productivity growth, and favorable policy climate will continue to support healthy growth. The outlook for credit may well tighten, but the regional financial system—which is still mainly built around bank credit—should be largely insulated from the huge deleveraging now under way in the US.

18 May 2008
Deutsche Bank
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshowarchive.cms?msid=3051430

FRANKFURT/GERMANY: Josef Ackermann, the chief executive of Deutsche Bank AG, said on Sunday that he believes the global credit crisis is drawing to an end and that financial markets are in no danger of collapsing.

30 July 2008
HSBC
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/economicnews/print/363847/1/.html

HONG KONG: Global banking giant HSBC has dismissed fears of a global credit crisis having a large impact in Asia. It said that overall, Asian economies remain robust, thanks to strong domestic demand.

25 September 2008
Australia & New Zealand Banking Group
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&refer=australia&sid=aKP3xO.9SKy0

Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Australian banks are ``looking very strong'' amid the global credit crisis, said Mike Smith, chief executive officer of Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.

September 2008
Asian Development Bank
http://www.adb.org/Documents/Books/ADO/2008/update/default.asp

Events in the first 8 months of 2008 suggest some major changes in the external environment affecting the assumptions made in April when Asian Development Outlook 2008 was released. The slowdown in the G3 (United States, eurozone, and Japan) is now seen continuing until the end of 2009. As a result, growth in the volume of world trade will slow. Both food and fuel prices, which have surged this year, are forecast to come down but will remain higher than in 2007 for the rest of this year and next. With the continuing turmoil in financial markets, the cost of new capital will become higher, and access harder, for developing Asia.

In addition to the regional slowdown in growth and jumps in inflation, current account surpluses are diminishing and deficits are widening. Currencies are depreciating, putting upward pressure on inflation. Another danger is that although central banks have begun to tighten monetary policy, some may have let the inflation genie out of the bottle by doing too little, too late, since interest rates in most countries are still lower than inflation.

4 November 2008
The Earth Times
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/239991,global-credit-crisis-sinks-australias-allco-finance.html

Sydney - Australian banks Tuesday pulled the rug from under debt-laden local leveraged buy-out specialist Allco Finance Group. Receivers were appointed for Allco and its shares placed in a trading halt after talks with the 12 banks failed to reach agreement on a repayment schedule for debts of 667 million Australian dollars (446 million US dollars).

4 November 2008
Morningstar
http://www.morningstar.ca/globalhome/Industry/News.asp?Articleid=ArticleID113200814341

Investment funds in Canada had one of their worst one-month performances in a decade in October, as investors around the world sold off equities and flocked to the safety of U.S. Treasury bills. All but four of the 43 Morningstar Canada Fund Indices suffered losses in October, including 20 indices that lost more than 10%, according to preliminary performance data released today by Morningstar Canada.

6 November 2008
Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/local/news/general/credit-crisis-smashes-40b-hole-in-budget/1353273.aspx

Unemployment is tipped to rise to 5per cent by June 2010, with inflation predicted to fall to 3per cent next financial year. Unemployment figures are to be issued today, with economists expecting a rise from the current level of 4.3 per cent.

Treasurer Wayne Swan said, ''The global financial crisis has smashed a $40billion hole in the budget.''

ANZ senior economist Mark Rodriguez said it expected Government revenues to deteriorate further because of optimistic assumptions in the mid-year forecasts.

Who do we trust now?

For a good overview of the global credit crisis and why it came about, go to Anatomy of a global credit crisis by The Independent.